A lot of time has been spent navel gazing in light of the special election in Massachusetts.  Steve Kornacki , writing for the Daily Beast, wondered if Kristen Gillibrand might be the "next" Martha Coakley.

When a Democratic Senate candidate loses in Ted Kennedy’s backyard, it’s cause for alarm for every Democrat up for reelection—especially those who thought they were insulated by the Democratic bent of their home state. Case in point: Kirsten Gillibrand.

To date, Gillibrand’s political career has been the definition of a charmed ascent, typified first by her campaign for the House in a can’t-miss year for Democrats (2006) against a Republican opponent who had to answer 11th-hour charges of spousal abuse, and then by her gubernatorial appointment to the U.S. Senate two years later.

However there are a couple of things that Mr. Kornacki is not taking into account.  First is he assumes that the GOP is going to actually PICK a candidate much less a strong one. What helped Scott Brown win in Massachussetts was in large part the fact that he was a strong and smart candidate.  Yes he capitalized on some sensational Coakley blunders but he also had a great ground game and an internet operation that was able to raise over $1million a day in the final week of the campaign!  So far we have not seen a candidate like that in New York.

Which leads us to number 2.  Who IS the candidate?  So far all we know who it is NOT!  All of the conventional wisdom "names", George Petaki and Rudy Guilliani, are not running.  Shoot - even Gillibrand's Democrat primary challengers are declining to run  So where does that leave the NYGOP?!  My radio partner Jazz Shaw has long been of the mind that Gillibrand was going to be hard pressed to win re-election if the NYGOP actually picks a strong candidate.   We are still waiting for someone, ANYONE to come out and say the are running.  That anyone may not be a strong candidate and if that is the case, weak or not, Gillibrand - with the benefit of incumbency behind her - will be the odds on favorite to win.

We are in a climate where the GOP can flip some otherwise unwinnable seats.  Harry Reid's approval rating in Nevada is so low that the pundits are already calling this a guaranteed pick up for the eventual GOP nominee.  Illinois - Barack Obama's old seat - is looking more and more like it will also flip.  With these, and other, normally "safe" seats up for grabs New York could come into play - under the right seat of circumstances.  Unfortunately for the NYGOP it looks like those circumstances flew right by them on their way to Massachusetts