Kevin McCullough (writing over at TownHall.com) has a post up that echo remarks I have made to friends regarding this falls election.
Republicans will be wanting to 'recount Illinois,' I said to a seemingly annoyed former Kerry staffer and Obama supporter in the Fox News green room on Friday.
"How do you figure?" came the response.
I said, "It's pretty simple. If Obama doesn't change his message (amongst other things), this isn't even gonna be close."
I almost felt sorry for him, as he nodded his head in agreement, and walked away.
Now the normal caveats apply here, as Kevin also notes.
Personally--and for the record--let me say up front that I don't expect the election results of 2012 to wield a blow-out for the GOP. But presently the race, the state of the nation, and the complete incompetence of the Obama campaign are doing all they can to persuade me.
Obama supporters will argue, "Kevin you're in the middle of summer and no one pays attention at this point." Under normal conditions I would agree with you, but people are paying attention--they have been for 3.5 years--and to be honest they're exhausted.
He then goes on to list why he thinks things are looking so bad for Team O.
1. Obama's operation is behaving like they will get total cover from the press, while Romney's is assuming they won't.
This is of huge importance. The truth is both assumptions are wrong. Romney will get some good coverage, and eventually some mainstream outlets will hold Obama accountable for his gaffes, missteps, and strike-outs (even several mainstream sources were forced to report on him commenting that "the private sector is fine"). Yet because Obama's team behaves like they can get away with anything, they've gotten careless--with timing, execution, and specifics. Axelrod and company are making the keystone cops look brilliant, and it really is beginning to show. Likewise--while Romney hasn't been completely error free--his team is paying attention to the slogan on the front of his podium. He's on message about jobs and the economy constantly, and he's moving poll numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, and even California.
2. Team Obama's mistakes are causing panic--hence poor campaigning.
It wasn't the Romney team that told President Obama to go out and drag the effort to redefine marriage into the 2012 election cycle. And they certainly didn't tell Obama to do so merely two days after North Carolina--a tightly contested swing state--just voted two to one in favor of the traditional definition in President Obama's most loyal voting block--African Americans. If Mitt Romney can get 2% more African Americans to vote for him--or just stay home on election day--he will cause the President to lose in a demographic that has been the only subset of voters current surveys indicate he has the possibility to hold on to.
Panic seems to be the operative word of the day. The Boston Globe ran an op-ed yesterday, written by John Sununu, that talks about the panic at the White House.
3. Obama's tactics are being unveiled--at his own doing--and people are seeing through them.
To come out to the White House rose garden and pronounce that your administration was going to unilaterally offer hundreds of thousands of work permits to young illegal aliens--when the state of the nation can not currently handle or contain the number of Americans without work is tantamount to wondering why your electric bill is so high when every appliance in your home is left on 24 hours a day. The economy is paying the price of a faltering small business/private sector that has difficulty being able to predict with certainty what new penalties they will see if they even stay in business. The thought of hiring workers is already an obstacle so great they can barely risk it. Small businesses create two out of every three new jobs in the nation and now with hundreds of thousands more workers flooding the marketplace, helping American families find food for the table each night becomes more challenging.
And he's not happy about it as this Washington Post article points out. It is perfectly fine for HIM to use those tactics, but no one had better DARE use them on him seems to be the message. Yet more and more people, INCLUDING Mitt Romney are doing just that.
4. Obama isn't listening to anyone except his donors. (And there are far fewer of them this go around...)
When every day Democrats with day jobs like--Congressman Ford, Gov. Rendell, or Mayor Booker--attempt to get the President to moderate his tone, speech and tactics--they are excommunicated from the inner circle. When Ana Wintour, Sarah Jessica Parker, Steven Spielberg, or Ludicrous come calling--suddenly he has all the time necessary. The AFL-CIO, amongst other unions, this week announced they're pulling money out of the presidential race. And even the young person's vote--a group he had plenty of energy with in 2008 is becoming disinterested and uninvolved. It could likely be due to the fact that employment in their demographic is at a record rate.
Even the Great Triangulator, Bill Clinton, has hinted that President Obama needs to back off on the tone and the President, like a petulant know-it-all teen-ager, refuses to listen to wiser political council.
5. Obama is full of excuses, and empty of results.
President Obama's likability is suffering--and will suffer more--because people are not able to square his big talk with a first term that passed record government spending and took over private sector health care provision--all while adding more to the debt and deficit that all presidents before him--combined. Ultimately this attempt by government to become the end-all be-all for the individual has finally caught up to the reality of the cost. The recovery is too slow, the cost is too great, the help is more expensive, and the results have become excuses.
This has to be the main point. Many voters were willing to buy the "It's Bush's fault - we didn't know how bad it was" schtick in the first year of his administration. However, three years in, the excuses are wearing thin. Just take a look at the collective reaction to the latest "major speech" of the Obama Campaign. Everyone (including the media) panned the excuses.
But the line of the column has to be this.
This week in New York City, President Obama told the Wintour-Parker-Streep nexus that they would be the deciding factor in the nation's future.
This week to the tax-payers of Ohio, Governor Romney said that he believes the American people should be.
As long as Mitt Romney's "special interest" group remains the average middle class voter (as opposed to the Wintour, Parker and Streep 1%s) he will have no problems.